CNBC SPEAKS WARNS ABOUT BITCOIN
The newest way to bet on BITCOIN,
the cryptocurrency that has taken Wall
Street by storm with its stratospheric price rise and wild daily
gyrations, will arrive on Dec 9 2017 when BITCOIN
futures start trading. Read :
BITCOIN -
Canary In The Coal Mine
The first
BITCOIN
future trades are set to kick off at 6 p.m. EST on Cboe Global Markets
Inc's Cboe Futures Exchange.
The launch has given an extra kick to the
cyptocurrency's scorching run this year. It has nearly doubled in price
since the start of December, but recent days saw sharp moves in both
directions, with BITCOIN
losing almost a fifth of its value on Friday after surging more than 40
percent in the previous 48 hours.
But while some market participants are
excited about a regulated way to bet on or hedge against moves in
BITCOIN,
others caution that risks remain for investors and possibly even the
clearing organizations underpinning the trades.
The futures are cash-settled contracts based
on the auction price of
BITCOIN in U.S. dollars on
the Gemini Exchange, owned and operated by virtual currency
entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.
"The pretty sharp rise we have seen in BITCOIN in just
the last couple of weeks has probably been driven by optimism ahead of
the futures launch," said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and
derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin.
BITCOIN
fans appear excited about the prospect of an exchange-listed
and regulated product and the ability to bet on its price swings without
having to sign up for a digital wallet.
The futures are an alternative to a largely
unregulated spot market underpinned by cryptocurrency exchanges that
have been plagued by cybersecurity and
fraud issues.
"You are going to open up the market to a whole lot of people who aren't
currently in BITCOIN," Frederick said.
The futures launch has so far received a mixed reception from big U.S.
banks and brokerages.
Interactive Brokers plans to offer its
customers access to the first
BITCOIN futures when trading
goes live, but bars clients from assuming short positions and has margin
requirements of at least 50 percent.
Several online brokerages including Charles
Schwab and TD
Ameritradewill not allow the
trading of the newly launched futures from day one.
Some of the big U.S. banks including JPMorgan
Chase and Citigroup,
will not immediately clear
BITCOIN trades for clients,
the Financial Times reported on Friday.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc on Thursday said it
is planning to clear BITCOIN
futures for certain
clients.
Volatility Dampener
BITCOIN
manic run-up this year
has boosted volatility far in excess of other asset classes. The
launch of futures may help dampen some of the sharp moves, analysts
said.
"Hypothetically, volatility over the long run should drop after
institutions get involved," said Ophir Gottlieb, chief executive of
Los Angeles-based Capital Market Laboratories.
"But there may not be an immediate impact, say in the first month,"
he said.
The launch futures on an underlying spot market can lend more order
to spot trading in the long run, by facilitating better price
discovery and directional bets, not just long bets, J.J. Kinahan,
chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago, said.
Analysts, however, warn that much of how
the futures market will react is a mystery, given that
BITCOIN
is unlike any other asset.
"This is completely unknown territory," said Charles Schwab's
Frederick.
Fears of inaccurate pricing and systemic
risk to clearing houses should prices move sharply and clients fail
to meet margin calls remain. Brokers have said that more safeguards
are needed to protect against high
BITCOIN volatility.
The risk of market participants manipulating the underlying spot
market to their benefit in the futures market is another big
concern.
"Large equity indexes show some volatility around cash settlements
and those are in highly liquid, highly regulated venues," said Steve
Sosnick, chief options strategist at Interactive Brokers Group Inc
in Greenwich, Connecticut.
"Compare that to cash settlement in
BITCOIN,
and there is a lot more uncertainty on how that would play out."
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